Discontent, Low Turnout, and a Grim Choice Between Reformist and Ultraconservative Candidates
Iran is also in election mode, but elections are hardly democratic. This time, the mood is particularly grim, forlorn. Iranians are still reeling from the mysterious death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19th. Additionally, they are facing a choice between candidates from opposite ends of the political spectrum – a choice described by the New York Times as between bad and worse.
Iranians, thus feel disengaged from the election process, viewing it as a mere formality. In a country which is dictatorial to its core, elections are seen as farcical. On June 28th around 60% of the country’s 61million eligible voters abstained, resulting in the lowest turnout since the 1979 revolution. Instead of queues outside polling stations, election monitors slept at their desks in empty mosques. The scale of the boycott is a rebuke to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, who stated that any vote was a vote for his Islamic Republic.
Iran’s political system is a hybrid that mixes elements of democracy, military rule and religious authority. The second round, on July 5th, will further reveal the fissures in Iranian society and the regime’s fragility. The candidates in the first round included Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Masoud Pezeshkian and Saeed Jalili.
Qalibaf, backed by clerics and military commanders, is a stalwart of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps but is now out of the race after receiving 3.38 million votes.
Masoud Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old surgeon and former health minister in a reform-leaning government, received 10.45 million votes and leads the tally. Saeed Jalili, an ultraconservative, garnered 9.5 million votes. Jalili blames Iran’s economic woes on sanctions and calls for confrontation with America and closer ties with Russia and China. He enjoys the support of the Paydari Front, a militant religious right movement.
On July 5th, the contest will thus be between the reformist Masoud Pezeshkian and ultraconservative Saeed Jalili- a choice between the bad and the worse. Both come from opposite ends of Iran. Both are likely to denounce their rival as an existential threat to rally support and increase turnout. The election narrative and rhetoric is expected to become exploitive and explosive.
The ultraconservative Jalili is from Mashhad, Iran’s holiest city and its second-largest, and appeals to the Persian-speaking majority who fill the regime’s ranks. The reformist Pezeshkian is a long-time MP from Tabriz. Although Pezeshkian’s speeches attract large crowds, the reformists have struggled to convince the younger generation demanding greater cultural freedom that their movement offers real change. Many young Iranians are skeptical of the electoral process, knowing that ultimate power lies with the supreme leader and the Revolutionary Guards.
Jalili, from Mashhad, appeals to the Persian-speaking majority. Pezeshkian, an MP from Tabriz with Turkish and Kurdish heritage, seeks to mobilize minorities who resent Persian dominance. Although Pezeshkian’s speeches attract large crowds, the reformists have struggled to convince the younger generation that their movement offers real change. Many young Iranians are skeptical of the electoral process, knowing that ultimate power lies with the supreme leader and the Revolutionary Guards.
Furthermore, the death of Mahsa Amini continues to cast a pall over the election. Many women, particularly, have refrained from participating, engaging or even exercising their vote. Anecdotal evidence suggests women boycotted the polls more than men did. Though Pezeshkian, the night before the first round called for equal rights for women and said they should be allowed to choose how to dress, many women remain unconvinced.
The big question though is how will the supreme leader react and act towards the self-evident alienation of Iranians. Khamenei has said a higher turnout is a yardstick of the regime’s “durability, stability, honour and dignity in the world”. Iran is ruled by an unpopular regime plagued by unrest, faces an uncertain future. While Khamenei fears the election may spark a people power movement, the greatest threat to his rule. While the rest of the world watches closely, concerned about the direction of Iran’s foreign and nuclear policies.
